Stanford GSB

Stanford GSB

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

No Age Statement Whiskies and the Power of Good Storytelling

Following Martin’s very entertaining presentation to our class on Monday, I thought I might look further into two of the Scotch Whiskies he brought for us to taste: the Macallan 12 and the Highland Park Dark Origins.  One aspect of the comparison that I found particularly interesting was the age statement vs. no age statement (NAS) distinction.

First, some background on age statements.  Unless it is expressly stated otherwise, one should assume that every single malt (really, single distillery) Scotch one buys with an age statement is actually a blend of whiskies of different ages.  It is common practice to blend in this manner, for a variety of economic and aesthetic reasons.  However, according to the regulations governing Scotch, only the age of the youngest whisky used in the blend may be stated on the label.  It is entirely up to the distillery/blender to determine how much of the youngest whisky will be used in the final blend.

Next, some numbers:

Macallan 12 Y.O. (Sherry Oak)
Strength: 43% ABV
Price: $51 at BevMo

Macallan 15 Y.O. (Fine Oak)
Strength: 43% ABV
Price: $105 at BevMo

Highland Park 12 Y.O.
Strength: 43% ABV
Price: $47 at BevMo

Highland Park 15 Y.O.
Strength: 43% ABV
Price: $90 at BevMo

Highland Park Dark Origins
Strength: 46.8% ABV
Price: $79 at BevMo

Comparing the Macallan 12 to the Highland Park 12 shows that, on the “low” end of the range, the Macallan brand commands a higher price than Highland Park (8.5% more expensive).  This difference increases dramatically in the more expensive expressions.  At 15 Y.O. Macallan is 16.7% more expensive, at 18 Y.O. it is 59.7% more expensive ($230 vs. $144 per bottle), and at 30 Y.O. it is 487% more expensive ($3400 vs. $700 per bottle, adjusting for the Highland Park’s higher ABV of 48.1%)*.  I think this speaks to the point Martin made in class about the more or less inexplicable explosion in demand for Macallan over the last decade or so.

Anyway, with regard to the NAS whisky we tasted, if we assume that price increases linearly for Highland Park whiskies with age statements between 12 and 15 years, and that the youngest whisky in the Dark Origins blend is somewhere within this range, 43% ABV Dark Origins is priced like a Highland Park with an age statement of roughly 14 years.  Of course, since the distillery does not disclose the content of the blend, we don’t know how old the youngest component is (or the average age, which in this case is likely similar).  But this age is certainly less than 14 years, and probably considerably less.  Assuming that storage costs remain roughly the same each year, that advertising costs for Dark Origins are not significantly greater than average for a Highland Park, and that the whisky sells well, moving the average age down makes for a more profitable product. 

Just for the sake of argument, let’s say that the average age of the whisky in Dark Origins is 13 years.  How does Highland Park go about selling a 13-year-old whisky for the price of a 14-year-old whisky?  Tell a better story!  If you look at the narratives surrounding both the Macallan and Highland Park distilleries they are remarkably similar, and, in my opinion, pretty dull.  Macallan’s story has six “pillars” (a nice old estate house; small stills; high initial ABV; sometimes-sherry-oak casks; no artificial coloring; and high quality spirit).  Highland Park’s story has five “keystones” (hand-turned malt; aromatic peat; cool climate for maturation; sherry oak casks; six-month harmonization period).  Beyond this, neither distillery really bothers to tell much of a story for their age statement whiskies.  The Macallan Sherry Oak 12 is “a dram to be enjoyed with friends,” while the 25 Y.O. is “a distinguished dram for a respected gentleman.”  The $3000 30 Y.O. is “reminiscent of an orange grove.”  The $3000 40 Y.O. Highland Park is “the culmination of years of our finest whisky making experience.”

Contrast these one-liners to the Dark Origins story.  Dark Origins celebrates the founding of the Highland Park distillery by Magnus Eunson at the end of the 18th Century.  Eunson was a beadle (church officer) by day, whisky smuggler by night, and a “born character, brimful of pawky humour and resource, which extricated him from many a scrape.”  The Dark Origins product page links to a very thematic YouTube video filled with shots of full moons and dark alleys.  Black and silver are used extensively on the packaging, and a shady-looking smuggler guy is depicted on the box.  The heavily-sherried spirit is described as having a “beautiful dark color,” with “dark fruit” flavors and “deep, dark spice notes.”

I don’t know how well Dark Origins is selling, but given that Highland Park has been producing Viking-themed NAS whiskies for a while it is probably safe to assume they are not losing money on it.  Keep in mind: if Dark Origins is in fact a 13 Y.O. whisky, its ABV-adjusted price is about $2 higher per bottle than a (hypothetical) 13 Y.O. Macallan.  Yet another example of the power of good storytelling.

* I considered the Macallan Fine Oak and Sherry Oak offerings interchangeable for the purposes of this analysis.


Sources:

Scotch Whisky Regulations (see document p.13).
http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/media/12744/scotchwhiskyregguidance2009.pdf

Macallan six pillars (see document p.9)
http://www.themacallan.com/media/30704/final-tm-brand-book-spreads.pdf

Highland Park five keystones
http://highlandpark.co.uk/keystones/

Dark Origins Product Page

http://highlandpark.co.uk/shop/highland-park-dark-origins/

3 comments:

  1. Ben, thanks for this analysis, it's super interesting! I wonder though whether Highland is actually making a bolder (and more profitable) move than you hypothesize with the Dark Origins. One of the things that Martin mentioned during the discussion of NAS offerings was that one driver of it was the inability of supply to keep up with demand using only batches that had been set to age at least 12 years ago. That is due to the trend that he cited and we discussed in the Coppersea case that overall consumption of dark spirits has increased so dramatically in the last decade. He also said "there are plenty of 40 year old Scotches that are terrible and plenty of 5 year old ones that are delicious."

    This makes me wonder whether Highland might be using substantially younger batches to make the Dark Origins and other NAS expressions and using Middle Sister's strategy of charging a higher price to lend it credibility. A novice Scotch drinker if faced with a 12 year and a NAS Dark Origins on the shelf might easily associate higher "quality" to the higher price and choose the Dark Origins. If it were the case that Highland was actually using less than 12 year old Scotch in the Dark Origins then they would really be making a killing!

    Thoughts?

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    1. Kate, I completely agree with you about the distillery's motivation for going the NAS route. 12+ years is quite a long lead time, and NAS is a clever way of getting around that.

      Martin's point about 40- and 5-year-olds is also correct, though I wonder if Highland Park has an idea of what the limit is on how big of an age/price difference they can get away with before sales start to taper off. It's true that a great time can be had with a 5-year-old whisky, but it's not super hard to tell when you're drinking something that young, and why would someone buy a 5-year-old for the price of a 12-year-old (for example) when they could get the 5-year-old experience for a much lower price? At some point, even a novice would understand that they are not getting a good value, right? Or not?

      Based on my own limited experience, I'd have to guess that the bulk of Dark Origins is at least 10 years old, and not much less than 12, at the youngest. It would be really great to hear other opinions on this, though!

      And great point about the Middle Sister strategy. I bet you are right that it figures into Highland Park's strategy for their NAS whiskies. Too bad for them that it probably only works up to a certain price point. Once they go above that ($90? $100? $120?) they'd be dealing with more experienced consumers, collectors, and folks buying to impress with an age statement.

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