Is Pinot destined to follow Merlot?

I loved the previous post about the Sideways Effect. This summer I spent my internship at Duckhorn which was started as a house of great Merlot and continues to be know for its great Merlot despite the market trends against Merlot and in favor of pinot. One of the things I discussed with my co-workers is why they think Merlot sales have dropped off so precipitously in the market. From a taste/weight perspective, Merlot and Pinot Noir serve similar purposes. They are fruit forward wines that pair really well with food. So then why have customers suddenly selected Pinot Noir over Merlot as their wine of choice?

My co-workers made the following argument:
In the years leading up to the Sideways era, Merlot gained in popularity. As a result, wineries followed market demand by planting more Merlot and producing more Merlot-based wines. As a result Merlot became available across all prices and quality levels. In creating this diversity and range of products, Merlot's reputation as a great wine was damaged because Merlot prices rose but quality didn't always come with it. Consumers became frustrated that they didn't know what they would get when they bought a bottle of Merlot. Customers are rational at the end of the day. They are not going to continue buying a product that disappoints them X% of the time and so they stopped buying Merlot at the same rate. As a result, wineries followed market trends and stopped producing Merlot. Restaurants and grocery stores stopped stocking as much Merlot because they couldn't move product. Next time you look at a wine list divided by varietal, there probably won't even be a section devoted to Merlot. This has become a vicious cycle because now that Merlot is not readily available for sale, consumers aren't getting exposed to Merlot (even the good stuff). If consumers aren't exposed to Merlot, they won't ask for it. If they won't ask for it, suppliers, distributors, and retailers will continue to ignore it as a category.

Ok, all that is to say I argue that Pinot is ripe to follow a similar pattern. Over the last few years, we've all seen the rise of Pinot. Meiomi's sale to Constellation for $315M is thus far the height of this trend. As Pinot has become more popular, vineyards have planted more Pinot and wineries have produced more Pinot. It has become available across all prices and quality levels (starting to sound familiar?). In addition Pinot happens to be a very versatile grape. Depending on where the grape grows and how its treated, it can be light and refreshing or heavy and rich. These forces all lead to the same place that Merlot arrived...when a customer is looking at a grocery store shelf or a wine list, will they begin to shy away because they don't know what they're going to get? Will this lack of predictability for the average-to-above-average consumer ultimately lead to Pinot's decline? I'd argue yes. As someone who cares about wine, I will never buy pinot if I'm not familiar with the producer or if I don't have someone to help me (e.g. a somm or wine retailer). I won't buy it because I can never be sure of what I'm getting in terms of taste and value. For me that's a deal breaker and something I feel is ultimately dangerous for the future of the category.