Stanford GSB

Stanford GSB

Friday, January 29, 2016

The State of the Union - Wine Edition

The Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division has just published its annual study about the state of the United States wine industry and the primary conclusion is that the U.S. is the world's dominant wine consumer. Despite this, several industry trends suggest that this could change at any time given the availability of European wines and the strength of the US Dollar. There is a clear shift in consumption away from France, Italy and Spain, and toward the United States, the United Kingdom, China and Argentina. Currently 39% of wine is consumed outside European countries, compared with 31% in 2000.

Some other key takeaways from the study are below:

- Wines priced above $20 per bottle experienced substantial growth with red wines in particular showing strong growth
- Direct-to-consumer sales is expected to continue as the largest growth channel for most wineries
- The largest consuming cohort is the Baby Boomers and the cohort with the most opportunity is Generation X
- Grape pricing has hit a high mark, and contracts should see renegotiations downward in exchange for term. Current supply has already adjusted prices lower, reflecting current heavy supply stocks
- Studies show that traffic in regions like Napa is predominantly comprised of locals with tourism representing only 15 - 17%
- Half of all wine sold is below $9, however this price point is in decline as consumers are trading up
- The country's wine regions with the best yield and harvest quality in 2015 were from Oregon
- 2016's top projected region for sales is Anderson Valley

One of the interesting industry trends noted in the study is the continued movement to the "frugal luxury" wine space. These wines are purchased by consumers who are relatively price conscious but do not wish to sacrifice quality. It would be interesting to understand what other New World wine regions are experiencing similar growth in this wine segment.

In any case, the link to the SVB wine study is here:  https://www.svb.com/uploadedFiles/Content/Blogs/Wine_Report/2015_Wine_Report/wine-report-2015-pdf.pdf

If I may, I suggest reading it with a glass of Virginia Viogner or an Oregon Pinot for a patriotic effect. Enjoy!

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for sharing - this study is really interesting.

    I wonder if the key to expanding into Generation X lies in giving us a more intimate, personal experience with wine. A lot of us at the GSB associate certain wines, especially those from this region, with trips out to wineries. Once you have a personal connection with a certain winery or vintage it becomes about more than just the taste of the wine itself.

    Perhaps this is why a lot of wineries are really trying to make themselves into destinations (i.e. golf courses, make your own wine, etc.). I would imagine Generation X may put a premium on experiential connections. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and who are the winners and losers.

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